Al Qaeda to President Bush: Bring on the surge.

At least, that is what the terror network’s number two, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri said in a audio message intercepted today.

The timing tells the story. Dr. Zawahiri, who made his name by participating in the murder of Egyptian president and peacemaker Anwar Sadat, released the message today–in response to a speech that President Bush gave on Jan. 9. Why did it take the good doctor 13 days to respond? Most likely, he is some considerable distance from an internet connection or phone line–or he is too disciplined to use the ones nearby. He is a hunted man with a $25 million price on his head. When you a prey, it pays to be careful–or a high-flying predator will swoop down.

The message was released by the SITE Institute, which is being coy about how it came into possession of it. No doubt adept cyber-sleuthing on their part; possibly its analysts found it cached before al Qaeda was ready to post it on the usual jihadi web sites. Why didn’t the CIA find it first? Oh, nevermind.

As for the message itself, a few thoughts. It probably is not meant for us. It is the usual bravado used to rally Arab audiences to stand up the mightiest army on the planet. It is the kind of thing teenage footballers say to each other before the big game–and for the same reason. Without confidence, there can be no victory. This is more true for us than them. We can only lose by losing confidence, while Arab armies are among the most confident vanquished soldiers in the world.

Could Dr. Zawahiri be right? Is al Qaeda poised to swallow 20,000 reinforcements in its bloody maw? Not likely. The average firefight between terrorists in Iraq and U.S. soldiers lasts less than two minutes–and ends with the enemy’s death. That is why they have moved on to roadside bombs (which now account for some 70 percent of American combat deaths in Iraq) and mortar attacks (which allow the enemy to flee after lobbing a single projectile), and also why the insurgents now almost exclusively target civilians. The enemy does not have the training, numbers or discipline of the Vietcong; it cannot afford to directly engage U.S. forces, except in distant outposts like Anbar province. And even that is not going well for them. Of the 31 significant tribes in that desert province, 26 are now allied with the U.S. and the elected Iraqi government, a senior military intelligence officer told me recently. The U.S. Marines have proved to be very effective at winning over the locals with contracts, schools and health care.

It is still possible for the surge to end badly for the U.S. War has its many reverses. But Zawahiri’s message suggests that he is expecting the opposite to happen.