Subotai @98:
I have thought about the black swans. Many of those scenarios go away when the going gets tough. Most of the non-state actors receive nearly all their funding, in one form or another, from the existing international financial system. When that system implodes, so does their funding, support, reach, etc.
If some terrorist group has equiped itself for a major strike before the SHTF and then executes the strike afterwards as if nothing had already happened, well that’s just unlucky timing and a giant crap sandwich for the target of the attack.
Most state actors will find many more usefull things to do with very limited resources than to cause trouble for Americans who are mostly half a world away. For authoritarian nations like China and Russia, Iran and Syria, a world wide collapse will cause severe hardship in the category of nearly every manufactured good you can imagine. For Russia, China and Iran, their primary streams of revenue will vanish overnight. Perhaps Syria can be included in this list as well since they get a great deal of support from Iran. They will instead be devoting resources to maintaining power. When they start to look beyond their borders it will be toward easily accessable, easily conquored neighbors who can be looted to improve the situation of the agressors ruling elite.
That’s not to say that China won’t attempt to invade Taiwan and Iran won’t attempt to nuke Israel if they have a working weapon system by then. I believe both become highly probable in a global economic collapse as a tool to distract their own populations from the long lines at banks, fuel stations, and groceries. It’s all so much easier to blame all the woes on those capitalist pigs in Taipai, or those damned filthy jews in Tel Aviv than to take the reigns and fix your economy with the resources at hand. It’s almost always easier, and safer for ruling elite, to blame “the other” instead of taking concrete actions where positive results are expected.
As for losing one or more cities in a devastating WMD attack, I’m very much afraid you are correct, and that it’s only a matter of when and not if!
When an attack happens, I hope the only city to be struck will be D.C. I’ll regret the loss of innocent life, and the loss of the Smithsonian and so much history, but at least a major attack would also punish the culpable for a change…
I’m now convinced it will take another devastating attack before our government will dispence with security theater at the airports and concentrate on real terrorists.
Who knows, perhaps I can have my cake and eat it too, and they’ll use anthrax or VX or some other non-nuclear attack that will leave the monuments, old buildings and Smithsonian mostly intact for future generations.
Only time will tell. Be Prepared!
