Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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July 6, 2008 - 9:32 am - by Richard Fernandez
hdgreene
2008-07-06 13:31:18

Perhaps it has occurred to the Syrian regime that those rat lines run both ways. No doubt Sunni Syrians and Kurds might want some of the Autonomy they see developing in Iraq. In many cases the smugglers are Sunni tribes and the US has recently been making buddy-buddy with Sunni tribes. The Sunni world is suspicious of the Syrain alliance with Iran. That alliance would likely make Iraq’s Sunnis nervous, too.

The Syrians reasoned that the more (discreet) trouble they caused the U.S. in Iraq, the less of a threat we would be to them. The Iraqis might now play the same game in reverse: Keep the Syrians so busy fighting an insurgency that they cannot threaten Iraq.

Maybe having the US stick around — to make all the players feel a bit more secure — may have suddenly become Syria’s plan B. Besides, they can play Iran off the U.S. They are quite good at that game.