33. Whiskey: An Iranian stranglehold on the Persian Gulf (nice image) would be very bullish for oil prices in the short term. But $200 – $300 for more than a few weeks? I like to read your stuff – but this is a temptation to hold you up to ridicule. And I don’t think this miss undermines the point of your post: but you should consider what I’m saying. If oil prices were set on the producers’ wishes, prices would still be ~ $140/bbl. But the market needs both supply and demand sides: The Great US oil demand crater of 2009 got the producers’ attention. They (say Russia and Iran and Chavez-ville) are financially strapped: they cannot cut off deliveries to force prices up. Once prices clear $90/bbl again a lot of more difficult (deeper, more remote) resources become economic. More transportation in the US will switch to natural gas, (which we have plenty of). So the econ catastrophe leg of your argument must be discarded.