Gay marriage has been defeated in the US every single time it has been put up for the popular vote.
And therein lies a brilliant weapon for Republicans to use. All they need to do is declare the whole issue off the table – it’s a matter for States to decide without any Federal or judicial interference. No DOMA, but no “civil rights” rulings either (on pain of impeachment for the judge doing so).
In that world, marriage would remain largely the same as it always has. Unless gay activists can convince their fellow citizens to alter it, in which case, well okay. In the meantime gays are free to support conservative fiscal policies without feeling like they’re aiding “the enemy.” Plus, and more importantly, it’s a perfect fit with the foundation of the TEA party message – Government is your servant, not your master. “We’re politicians, who the hell are we to tell you what marraige is or isn’t? You tell us. If you even think we need to know.”
That last part is crucial. I’m not exactly in favor of gay marraige, though I think there are far bigger threats to the institution of marriage. It’s not a priority for me one way of the other – I believe our culture will rise and fall on other questions. But I am heartily sick of politicians and political activists telling me what sort of culture I must, or must not, accept. Liberal judges saying I have to accept gays, conservative legislators saying I can’t. To Hell with ‘em both, I’ll decide for myself. I’ll decide for myself if a gay couple is welcome in my home. I’ll decide for myself if a gay teacher is appropriate for my son’s classroom. I’ll decide for myself who my friends and associates will be. I’ll decide for myself where 75% of my income gets spent. I’ll decide for myself what sort of car I’ll drive and where I’ll live. I’ll decide for myself how much transfat to eat, whether I’ll smoke, and what sort of toliet I’ll have in my own damn bathroom.
Conservative candidates will win a lot of elections if they adopt a slightly modified version of the Fox News slogan: “We serve. You decide.” Whether it’s fiscal or cultural issues, conservates have the bulk of the people on their side, they don’t need to legislate their agenda. Simply returning power to the people will accomplish 80% of what any conservative could want. And the 20% it wouldn’t accomplish will be effectively impossible to secure long-term victories on anyway without moving popular opinion first. It’s liberals who have to force things on people via laws and court rulings, and who have to finance their agenda by taking other people’s money and borrowing in other people’s names. Those are the policies voters are rebelling against, and that Obama is doubling down on.
