Never divide the fleet

Well, that was actually a big debate in the pre-war (that is, pre-WWII) planing for War Plan Orange/Rainbow5. The Mahanians wanted to to straight for Manila, not capturing any bases along the way because then those bases would have to be defended, dividing the fleet.

Problem was, if the fleet went straight for Manila, it would arrive after a long, long journey to fight a fresh Japanese battle line a la the Russians at Tsushima. That didn’t go well for the Czar’s navy, and it likely wouldn’t go well for the US Navy either.

So bases were needed, and bases required defense, so the fleet needed to be divided. Mahan’s dictum wasn’t actually useful in practice.

It’s useful to realize that Mahan was writing when the Steam Navy was still awfully young. For a couple hundred years prior, sailing ships had ruled the seas, and they suffered less from range problems. They also followed very closely the N-squared law (the more powerful force will always win the battle and suffer disproportionately low losses compared to the smaller force). Battleships followed the same law.

Aircraft carriers didn’t. Battlewagons (whether steam fired steel hulls or wind-driven wooden ones) blast away at each other salvo after salvo. It takes time and both sides suffer damage roughly in proportion to the remaining firepower of the enemy. It’s hard for an inferior force to win.

Carrier warfare is different. A carrier strike is devastating and can preclude a return strike if it achieves surprise. A smaller force, if it gets lucky (and skill can manufacture luck) can cause devastating damage to a larger force. In that style of warfare, divided fleets that can quickly come to mutually support one another but not all get caught in the same ambush are a good idea.

Technology changes the shape of the battlefield, tactically and strategically. What is the War On Terror like? Is it a Big Gun duel or a carrier battle? I’d say it’s more like the Battle of the Atlantic, hidden submarines attacking defenseless targets when they can, running from the escorts when they’re found, and being sunk when caught. If that’s the better analogy, then what are the modern equivalents of:

(useful)
-Sonar
-Radar
-Jeep Carriers
-cheap, but effective and numerous, Destroyer Escorts
-Hunter-Killer Task Forces
-Enigma intercepts
-Convoy system

(questionable)
-Q Ships
-Bombing the sub pens