America is not a third world nation.
Blacks and Hispanics voted to put one of their own in, along with White women enamored of the “handsome big shot” and that plus enough people willing to take a gamble on Obama who seemed “safe and vetted” was enough for a narrow margin of about a little less than six points.
Who will turn out in 2010? The White Middle class that is getting screwed. Sure, Chicago and LA and other places will flood the polls with dead, phony, and non-enrolled voters voting. But will it be enough? No.
You don’t take a bunch of middle class people, suddenly make them poor, and their children and grandchildren, forever, and then not expect something to happen. Of course something will happen.
Nor will Obama be able to pull a recovery. Verizon cut 13,000 jobs. Glaxo Smith Kline another 20K or so. Sams Club about 12K. And on and on. Right now almost EVERY city and County and State is bankrupt. Meaning that Obama will be spending the BULK of his budget in transfers to states JUST TO KEEP STATE EMPLOYMENT UP. So there are not mass layoffs of state/muni/county workers to the tune of say, another 10-15 million.
In fact, just keeping the government employment level UP makes things harder for Obama. It creates a naked spoils struggle between the White Majority (particularly men) who are disadvantaged and Gays, Blacks, Hispanics, and White Women, who are favored. FDR governed it might be recalled by kicking every Mexican he could find out of America and excluding Blacks from the New Deal. Only in 1944 when Eleanor Roosevelt threatened various things did the Democrats allow Blacks to vote in Dem primaries.
This is, respectfully, what our host does not get. America is a White Majority nation, deeply divided by race, with the post-Reagan consensus broken.
The post Reagan consensus, kept by GHW Bush, Clinton, and GW Bush, was that Blacks, Hispanics, gays, and White Women, would be preferred and come to dominate government employment through Affirmative Action. However, government employment would be limited, tax burdens light, and growth in private sector employment with more limited AA burdens discriminating against the WHITE MAJORITY would mean social peace, with every one getting enough pie given that the pie always got bigger, and thus slices got bigger, for everyone.
Note the conditions: limited government growth, primacy of the private sector, economic growth in the latter. Including both jobs and wages.
This is a nation between 66%-75% White (depending on how you count guys like Mark Sanchez), and the majority can and will make the rules. Particularly when the ranks of SWPL are thinned by unemployment and underemployment. What little GDP growth that has happened has been from inventories drawn down as much as possible, being refurbished. Export-led growth is impossible, given that manufacturing is about only 20% of US jobs.
Job growth depends on economic growth internally which in turn requires:
1. Fewer regulations on business activity and job creation.
2. Fewer taxes on business activity and job creation.
3. CHEAP OIL and energy. PERIOD.
4. Keynsian pump priming by MASSIVE DEFENSE SPENDING. It took only 5,000 (estimated) men to build the Golden Gate Bridge in the Great Depression. It can take as many 60K direct and indirect to construct a Nimitz class carrier.
The ability, will, intellect, and politics of Obama doing this are zero. So he will get himself a Republican House, and possibly Senate, by 2010.
By 2012, he will have the mother of all patronage/resource battles between the White Middle Class and everyone else. This will be a fight drawn largely along racial lines. It will be ugly. Defeat for the White Middle Class will ensure second-class citizenship and eventual ethnic cleansing ala South Africa, with nowhere else to go. The fight will be extremely ugly even by contemporary standards, with charges of racism no longer potent (by abuse too much).
What is the White middle class supposed to do? Just all kill themselves? Die so America can be a nation of a few trendy hipsters and non-Whites living an “AVATAR” dream? The fury of the Tea Parties elected Scott Brown into “Ted Kennedy’s Seat.” This is economic (and cultural — no lawyers for terrorists) at its core.
The easiest thing in the World was for Bill Clinton to dole out goodies for the White Middle Class, with a promise implicit not to dole out too much to Blacks and Hispanics (End of Welfare as we know it). Obama cannot do that. He’s the first Black President. It’s his nature.
