Georgia does need a more robust protection since Russia has shown an inclination to grab ground and reluctant to fall back. The McFaul has decided not to go to Poti and has gone out to the Black Sea, I believe on a more defensive posture. The USCG Dallas is going to Batumi port instead of Poti.
Russia’s Moskova missile cruiser left port with 18 smaller escorts facing 9 NATO vessels. We are bringing in another 5 NATO fleets for a massive show of brinkmanship. Russia’s verbal belligerence makes me wonder if they really wanted to try us to attack in the Black Sea. They know that the NATO presence is a major push back in their sea. I believe our naval units are better than theirs, but does Medevev want to try us? I am beginning to wonder how rational the Russian are going to be. Their desire to punish us for their losses and dissolution of the USSR seems to be peaking. This is plan ego talking on their part and we should be careful if we want to antagonize Russia unless we are willing to follow through. This is not a good situation to leave to a next President.
A retreat to the enclaves is easy. I thought that Russia would take the chance to grab the enclaves and save face, since they blinked before they could take the pipelines. They could drag out negotiations for years while maintaining the enclaves.
But now we have to support Georgia with force if needed. If we keep Georgia than our ability to support Azerbaijan is greater and we have more leverage against Iran.
Bush did not want to handle a new Russian aggression, but they must be reassessing our strategic priorities and Cheney is going there. Better to stop Russia now at Georgia and get Azerbaijan to join us also. We need to finish up in Iraq as soon as possible with these new challenges. Afghanistan may be lost since Pakistani supply lines are compromised and Russia supply lines will also be lost. We will have to set up some warlords to fight the Taliban and hit them with airpower. It is a shame that the NATO forces squandered the opportunity to really damage the Taliban. But Taliban and the small remainder of AQ are not a strategic threat like Russia is and we should act accordingly.
It would have been nice if we had Iran on our side with a coup like the Shah’s son installed as ruler who could be our ally. It is a shame that we hamstrung our CIA from performing those operations in the 1970’s. It sure would be cheaper than war.
