Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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The Black Sea

August 24, 2008 - 3:41 pm - by Richard Fernandez
fedya
2008-08-25 18:16:38

@Lifeofthemind:
@2X4,
The danger is that the Russians could use the Transdniestre as a carrot

It may be a little more raw intimidation than carrot. Moldova is totally land-locked, bordered by Ukraine North, East and South. To her West lies Romania (Romainian is the majority language of Moldova) on the other side of — are you ready? — the DANUBE.

The Trans-Nistre (the “d” is fugitive) is a very long skinny sliver of Moldova running along most of Moldova’s Eastern edge, as Chuck Schumer might say: “A dagger aimed at the heart” of both Western Georgia and Moldova… and Central Europe.

The Danube is very long, in Europe only the Volga is longer. It is navigable by river craft all the way to Bavaria. It is the great strategic prize of — and key to — Europe all the way past Vienna to Germany.

Something is really going off the rails WRONG in Moscow. By saying they will do to Moldova what they just did in Georgia, they are doing two very scary things:

1) Threatening to close Eastern Europe’s primary transport route for goods to the Black Sea and the rest of the world via controlling Moldova.

2) Promising to use Ukraine as their private military polo field to do it.

Is it possible that Moscow is bluffing? Can this be mere bluster?

My guess is no, they are confident that they can sew up the Black Sea and Central Asia, forcing Turkey to become a compliant client of their Persian junior-partners. In such manner Putin the Great fulfills the fondest dream of his predecessor, Peter the Great: a Russian gateway to the Mediterranean.