Wonder how the false report regarding the submarine Dallas got into the mix but history is full of these 12 hour rumors. We probably do have an SSN shadowing the Russian fleet as it heads for Syria from Murmansk. A sub in the Black Sea would be interesting but as I’m sure I mentioned it is Turkey’s to patrol with diesel boats and the Russian submarine service is not what it used to be. Given the 21 day rule how long do ships have to depart the Black Sea before they can return? Is Nato going to have to keep two small fleets on either side of the Bosporus and swap them every 3 weeks? That will get expensive.

Note from the wiki article quoted by our host that the famous Russian light touch drove Turkey into the hands of Nato in 1949. A similar effort at bullying is getting Russia’s other neighbors to rush to America’s side now. Despite the frothing of the immature and the permanently adolexent the Americans are famous for their light touch and it does do us good. Even those who oppose us for political or tactical reasons will acknowledge that it is far better to have the American military show up in your country than the Russian.

I see nothing wrong with my comments about Russias tactical problems, internal security problems and logistical problems. The sooner we can shut off the flow of money to the Iranian regime and eliminate that threat the better. If Israel can be helped in breaking the Syrian/Iranian allies in Lebanon then the sooner the Assad regime will fall. When that happens the Russian Navy will have no place to go for the Winter but Kaliningrad. The proxy regime of Hizbollah is the greatest threat to opening a wider conflict and threatening all the gains made in the last 6 years at this time. My prediction is that on all these issues we will need to buy Turkish cooperation and the price will as usual be paid by the Kurds. Perhaps I worry to much about the 300 Russian tanks and their Division in Armenia but someone should be keeping an eye on it.