Wretchard:
” I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. ”
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Russia also will have to deal with The Law of Unintended Consequences.

It is my impression (I would like to find an expert opinion) that the 65,000 Ossetians who live in South Ossetia are by far the most radically nationalistic of the world’s 700,000 Ossetians.
(For numbers, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetians)

If Russia does unite South and North Ossetia, then the result might be a radicalization of Russia’s 515,000 Ossetians, who have been quiescent in recent decades.

For the North Ossetians, a big complaint has been the unwelcome immigration of Russians, Ingush and other Causcasus nationalities into their area. The immigrants dilute the Ossetian character of their region.

The Russians have been turning a blind eye when Ossetians chase Georgians out of South Ossetia. The Russians will be much more upset when Ossetians likewise start chasing non-Ossetians out of North Ossetia.

North Ossetias have been taking matters into their own hands for several years. Here are excerpts from an article published by Pravda in 2004:

http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/21/96/383/14452_KKK.html

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… dozens of North Ossetians founded the “Ossetian Ku Klux Klan”. … locals decided to establish such an undercover organization to withstand authorities.

“We are not advocating racism; there are many Greeks, Russians and Ukrainians among us,” said the organization’s founder Alan. “We gave it a name of the Ku Klux Klan because we’ll have to be the clan of the invisible. We are absolutely not interested in establishing this revolutionary underground, but this is today’s reality. …. It is impossible to remain quiet any longer. The time has come to rid or nation of such bastards. One must decide which side he/she is on. Silence is evil.” ….

Members of the Ossetian KKK do not appear to be emotionally unstable. A majority of them possess a University degree. There are no public activists among them; neither one of them strives to become famous. These people can simply no longer stay in the shade. They want to be heard. …..
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The addition of radical Ossetians from South Ossetia into organizations like that in North Ossetia might cause Russia a lot of problems.