In a couple of months Russian forces in Georgia will be lose the use of the tunnel and have to rely on the coastal railroad (vulnerable) and sea born transport. The Ukraine is going to increasingly obstruct use of Sevastapol leaving Russia only the inadequate port of Novorossiysk. The port of Batumi lies farther South than Poti in the district of Adjara along the Turkish border. Batumi is linked to both the rail line to Tblisi and the oil pipeline. That rail line was sabotoged yesterday and I expect to hear of more reciprical sabotage in Russia. The Russians would be very foolish if they tried to expand their forces even deeper into Georgia to forestall Nato forces. Nato Airpower can be based in Iraq, Bulgaria or Romania to control the Black Sea and establish an air bridge into Georgia even if the use of Incirlik is denied. The greatest threat to safe allied naval presence at the beginning of hostilities would come from what is left of the Russian submarine forces in the Black Sea. According to wiki that consists of two 30 year old diesel boats that may not be operational. Strategically the greatest land threat I see to the Georgian position is the Russian presence in Armenia. The Russians would be well advised to withdraw before the Winter and take anyone they issued a passport to with them.