@Larcenousity:
All this Russian interest and concern over the various ethnics (all their hyping and instigation of violence among them) is suddenly becoming devilishly clear.

Yes. And with all these big boys and little guys, a big picture emerges. Does it compare with the idea of a “cold war” with all those little clients and proxies running around murdering millions?

In a “Cold” war the primary belligerents never engage each other with direct fire; if a Big Bugger Belligerent gets shot at, it’s always from a proxy for the other side. That, so goes the theory, short cuts escalations which could quickly become a “Hot” War, i.e. thermonuclear hotte — whew! and that’s MAD hot, baby!

So, if it’s our own forces on the scene, can they afford to go eyeball to eyeball with the Russkies? I’d say no. Can our SOF’s sabotage the Roki tunnel? I’d say no. Can our Aegis tubs or Patriot batteries clear the skies over Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”? Again, I’d say not if we are smarter than your average rock.

On the other hand, can our guys clear the skies over the rail heads at Zugdidi, Poti, Batumi and from there up and through to the Armenian and Azerbaijani borders? I’d suggest, yes, and we’d better do it with alacrity and with clarity, too. If we don’t impose a free fly zone for all non-Russian-allied aircraft over free Georgia [exclusive of Abkhazia and South "Ossettia"], then Georgia will remain broken, subject to incursions, and terribly harassed.

If we do impose a free fly zone for all but Russian-allied aircraft over free Georgia, then Georgia herself will be capable of handling provocations by Russians masquerading as “minorities” and will be able to make her own incursions into those areas should she think she can get away with it. Bleed Ivan to death, you know?

Here’s the thing. It is actually a good thing to have to put US (live) and NATO (undead) forces at the ports and flash points of Georgia. They become tripwires, a new Fulda Gap or Checkpoint Charlie, as it were.

That is actually a greater deterrent to interdiction of trans-Caucasus trade than we’d have if Les Russes were to withdraw entirely but hang around just over the border without our guys continually on the ground in Georgia. Therefore, a permanent military mission to Georgia is the only way to return the trans-Caucasus to stability.

By that scenario, Ivan has bought himself Abkhazia by virtue of earlier ethnic cleansings, but he has also bought himself a thorough bloodletting to come in South “Ossettia” as well as a permanent stop sign just North-West of the Enguri River (Zugdidi).

…if–that is–we guarantee Georgian air space with our missile units on the ground and on US-NATO ships berthing in Batumi.

At some point very soon, if they tarry, Russian check point operators anywhere in free Georgian territory (i.e. not Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”) will have to be forced to withdraw, which Georgia will do with gusto once we’ve taken control of the air.

If all those “Cossack” volunteers are still looking for action, perhaps they could move to Siberia and beat up the natives, or to Moscow, and beat up everybody including themselves.

Russians are a decent people ruled, however, by their own worst elements. Someday I believe the Russian people will put the soloviki, and Putin, etc. in a jar where they belong. Until then…