Two weeks into this, and I think the Russians have achieved several objectives:
1- They now control Poti- I think this was the true objective from day one. It is the only area they remain in that’s outside the Sarkozy treaty loophole “safety zone”. It is also a port for the Baku pipeline.
2- The Americans have, as a Russian general said in the first few days of the crisis, “come to their senses”, and are now talking. That means concessions on either side. I bet anything the Russians will retreat to South Ossetia, thus allowing the Americans to feel like they got something done, but keep Poti.
3- Contol of the pipeline allows them to increase their oil derived “soft power”, and neutralizes whatever economic or political leverage the Central Asian states might have derived from oil traffic through the Baku pipeline.
I just heard the NATO ships headed to Poti had to dock south of Poti to avoid contact with Russian forces.
It looks to my untrained eye this more about Poti than South Ossetia.