The US is using a series of delicate tripwires. US General of European Command in Tbilisi to access the “humanitarian situation”. A missile destroyer and coast guard cutter to provide humanitarian supplies to Poti to open the port. C17 flights in Georgia. Notice how the Russian air force withdrew for several days once C17’s staring to arrive. Now Russian aircraft is mostly helicopter and over the western section of Georgia. Delicate encouragement by military forces that by themselves cannot effectively assert military offensive operations. But any action against them may activate Article 5?

Russian sources said they expect American ships to arrive by end of August. The US is offering the Russians the opportunity to retreat and maintain face but they must do so soon.

Russia can enjoy its opportunity to rampage throughout western Georgia for a while. But they have to retreat soon to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. In the meantime the insults such as asking for Russian papers to people traversing the Georgian state.

Russia will expand the borders of the separatist states and dare anyone to try to challenge the new borders. Russia will upgrade military facilities and keep the SS21 in Abkhazia to threaten Tbilisi in the future.

As long as the east west corridor is open for trade and the ports open, the US will accept the new reality. Georgia will have to accept that the gamble to get the separatist areas back has failed.

I expect that a rapid upgrade of US military facilities to Romania will be soon since that is a Black Sea country. The German pipeline under the Black Sea will be delayed or the plan will be rejected now since costs to Western oil companies with possible military conflicts in the future will be too high.