Wretchard, if you want a good historical analogy that even involves Islamic fundamentalists, I can think of none better than Gladstone, Gordon, and the Siege of Khartoum.

P.M. Gladstone thought he could wait the problem out and dithered interminably. He could not face the reality of the situation, and so he did nothing while hoping something else would turn up. He was asked repeatedly to send more troops, but he could not decide. At the very end he became frightened and tried to send more troops, but it was too late.

Gladstone was bluffing, trying to convince his constituents back home that everything was under control, that there was nothing to worry about. Gordon called Gladstone’s bluff with his life. Gordon knew exactly what he was doing, of course, and accepted the loss of his life as a minor sacrifice in support of his principles.

Gladstone’s government fell as a direct result of his folly.

You don’t need to postulate some invisible force when arrogance paired with foolishness provides the most obvious explanation. I suspect Sir William of Ockham would agree.