The BBC reports that US officials have said that their military presence in Georgia will now become permanent. The affair in Georgia was never about South Ossetia for Moscow. It was about being able to assert their regional hegemony. Whatever signal the Kremlin intended to send was, the signal that was received is indicated by the reaction of the US, Poland, Ukraine and NATO. From the looks of it, Georgia is not about South Ossetia either. Nor is it even about regaining respect for Russia, even if that’s what Putin thinks it should be about. When the border was crossed into Georgia proper it became altogether about something else. It is about stopping Putin’s policy.

Whether or not this is the right or proportional response can be debated. But what seems clear is that the law of unintended consequences is already operative. My guess is that each bellicose move from Russia will be matched, move for move, by equally bellicose US actions. I suppose Putin thinks that the stakes will reach a point where Washington will fold. But because it is not about Ossetia, or even Georgia any more, Putin is probably mistaken. The farther Washington ramps it up, the less they will be willing to climb down. The ante will keep rising, without limit.

I don’t think this is what Putin intended. But it is what he has gotten and whether he likes it or not, the stakes are now very high. And they’ll go higher. If diplomacy is not to fail entirely, it must find a solution that will satisfy everyone, including the Georgians, Ukranians and the Poles to some extent.