Freebird, yep –who knows when a Gen Jack D. Ripper will black-swan out of either ether.

Re hedging, it’s pretty clear that linchpin Turkey understands how our upcoming election could leave them high & dry if they were to saddle up with Bush now and then see Obama elected. In fact that’s a major, major weakness for us in this mess –if USA can no longer dependably sustain a foreign policy across an election, how in the world can we expect front-line allies to follow our lead? A critical weakness, really –empowering any adversary not similarly interrupted.