I have long viewed the Sunni/Shia split akin to the Catholic/Protestant split in the Thirty Years War, it is complicated by the constant pressure of the obviously more advanced and vibrant Western world.

Ethnic facets of this conflict are enhanced by the post-Ottoman division of the area into countries that have little respect for ethnic populations (Syria came from where? while the Aremenians and Kurds get no nation). Let’s face it, most of the nations in the arc from Pakistan to Syria are artificial to one extent or another. The Baluchis live across two borders, the Kurds across three and many of the smaller ethnicies suffer under the same divisions.

The Taliban has found the perfect wedge-point between Pakistan and Afghanistan, both these nations are artifical constructs, Frankenstein’s Monsters in effect, with little or no internal structure and nearly no concept of nationhood. Essentially they are geographical expressions with a government is residence instead of in control. Unfortunately Pakistan has nukes while Afghanistan has opium. This means that they cannot be readily ignored.

The difficulties we have encountered fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan are increased in Pakistan, large populations and extensive landmass make ferreting out the terrorists difficult, particularly so as the populations are either more sympathetic, or at least cowed, and far less helpful.

Perhaps the best play in the short run would be to enhance the Arab/Eastern split and reduce the money that oil has given to the forces of AQ and Taliban. In the long run support secular powers while they try to hammer out some sort of resolution between Islam of the 7th century and the world of today is probably the best course. This will take a long time and is apt to be messy and expensive, just the sort of thing that doesn’t sit well inside the Beltway.

Obama’s performance has done nothing to help any of the problems confronting us or our allies (do we still have any, or have they all gone under the bus?). He reminds me of someone playing a game of Monopoly that has lost interest and is just going through the motions, voting present if you will. It doesn’t help that his staff and Secretary of State are utterly clueless in matters of foreign policy, a cacophony of ideas, all of them bad.