Rus needs to create some form of “breach from Georgian side” to avoid the friday pull out deadline. Something is in cards for tomorrow. In the vicinity of Tbilisi. Once that part of the game is in place, they will strike on the capital. Actually, it may be a wholesome lie, who’d know what really happened, in the aftermath?

Whether that scenario materializes depends on Russian upper eschelon of officers. They may start to feel a bit uneasy about the whole affair, seeing that there is disparity between claims and what is really taking place. Or second, whether some Kremlin faction would feel threatened by escalation.

If these two factors are not in the way, the attack on Tbilisi is certain. Who’d stop them? Nobody, they are convinced. If that happens, and there is no other action but a litany of protests, Russia would feel that they should up the ante, to fragment the focus of western leaders. They want back Ukraine at the least, and the whole former USSR eventually. So, what would be next move on the chessboard?

In a relatively short period of time, Russia may try to create a diversion via Iran. It has to be done fast, before any chance of Israel or US preemptive assault. They may take a gamble and transfer a handful of nukes to Iran. Once done, they would be able to use Iran’s card for a blackmail, they think. Their hope would be that Iran will use the nukes in a short order by attacking Israel. That may as well be. But there is one factor that they may be overlooking. Iran’s goal (or specifically Ahmanutjob’s) is to create mayhem–WWIII. They may decide that the best way to do that would be to return the nukes to Russia–via air.

Sounds utterly crazy, doesn’t it?