Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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August 20, 2008 - 5:34 pm - by Richard Fernandez
fred
2008-08-20 21:47:03

How is Russia going to manage to pull off the annexation of so many countries when its own population is rapidly shrinking? And with a Muslim population that is growing, it can’t be a comfortable place for them to be. Our population is roughly twice the size of Russia’s. The Kremlin is going to have to continue to rely on 18 to 19 year old draftee cannon fodder. And that pool of human resources is not by any means limitless.

Russia’s weaknesses: low population growth and a declining health of its people; not much of a manufacturing base; wealth concentrated in the hands of a few and a thin middle-class; aging military equipment and technology, etc.

Our long-term strategy should take into account their strategic weaknesses. But we are not going to have a long term strategy until the outcome of the November election. One outcome greatly favors Russia in many ways; the other outcome is very bad for them. The big prize for Russia if Obama wins will be the end of the missile defense program (among others).