Missile defense that shoots down incoming missiles is a major stopping of offensive strikes the same as a nuclear response is. It means that the threat is no longer effective. That diminishes the power of Russia to threaten. That reduction of their power is a threat to Russia.
ABM defense will not have the capability with ten interceptors to seriously defend an onslaught of hundreds of incoming missiles now. But who is to say that it will stay at ten interceptors. Once these get into normal production then hundreds can be made and that does make the possibility of successful missiles strikes very low. The Russian know this also.
The Patriot have been improved so they are short term interceptors and many Patriot batteries are to be provided so there could be 100’s of short term interceptors installed.
Poland even insisted on an American guarantee that America would go to war to protect Poland. Poland is very vulnerable geographically as the land is perfect as an invasion route. Poland wisely decided that NATO may not have the will but decided that America would have the will to go to war. The defensive border that was Germany has now been moved to Poland. Germany will feel less fearful with a border country providing defensive depth. Besides Poland had the offensive capability to stop the Russian imports to Germany. Now Russia has lost the future ability to control the territory that the gas lines go through.
Georgia effectively under a cease fire surrendered to Russia and only the eastern portion is safe. Georgian cannot beak the cease fire since Russia has strengthened her forces in Georgia. Georgia has still made its defense of Tbilisi at Mtskheta, which has the high ground at the road and river. But this is a desperation defense that will fail if pushed strongly. But Russia would incur a cost to take Tbilisi. The best defense has been the high level foreign dignitaries constantly arriving at Tbilisi. Human shields if you will.
If Georgia forces shoot at the Russia than all restraint of Russian forces are gone. This has so far been a very fragile restraint. The excess of the S. Ossetian looters and murderers have been checked since that made Russia look bad. The Russia soldiers are enjoying the western good they have found at the port including American weapons like M4’s and Hummers that were at Poti warehouses.
The western oil companies invested 15 tears and billions to build the BZC pipeline and was supposed to build a gas line next to that. That has now become too costly, so Russia has already had an effect on competition to their controlled gas lines to Europe
Gates misstatement saying there was no chance of military action by the US has emboldened the Russians. If we were going to take military action we would want good supply lines since we would be fighting a force that can bring the entire countries military forces by rail since they border Georgia. We are not in that enviable position.
We would have to have Turkey’s permission since attacking Russia from Turkeys land would make Turkey a party to the US war against Russia. Turkey has to live there so they reasonably would refuse any such request.
I certainly hope that no one suggests that we invade via Iran, as that would entail going to war against Iran, then the Azerbaijan and the Armenians. No we are limited to diplomatic and soft power methods. Once we get ships to the port that will encourage Russia to leave the ports.
Russia unusual threatening the west is such bellicose ways has either an intended effect to dissuade the US from action or they now feel so cocky with a successful military action against a small nation that they feel they could take us on. I personally do not want to test that. Our Army is tired and needs lots of new equipment and more troops and armor to fight Russia, which would end up on multitude fronts. At 500K men we just do not have the land force.
