My past posts on Taiwan pointed out that if China turned the Straits into a war zone they would interdict Shanghai and Hongkong into the bargain, not to mention the tanker traffic headed for Japan and Korea — two of their largest customers. Therefore I believed that China would never actually invade Taiwan, when it was so much safer to reel it in using economic leverage and diplomacy.

The same considerations apply here. Russia can intimidate Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics up to a point. But not to the point where actual conflict and chaos break out. Why? Because their pipelines West go through these countries and pipelines must be secured along their whole length and secured persistently. Poland has not acted in any other way except defensively. Defensive ABMs. Defensive SAMs. Poland is not going to invade Russia with Patriot missiles or anything else. So in terms of national interest stakes, there’s an asymmetry. Poland and the Ukraine are essentially fighting for independence and survival. Russia is merely playing for influence. So when the pushing comes, the calculus will be different. It always is when you are fighting for national survival.