Stratfor hasn’t impressed me yet. The warning from the Kremlin not to get the Bear really angry by fighting back does have an element of truth in it. If necessary as a last resort free people sacrifice themselves in a hopeless cause but if possible they change the equation so that their cause is not hopeless and their sacrifice if unavoidable is effective. The usual pattern in guerilla movements against the west is based on the model of the Tupamoro Foco or the FALN in The Battle of Algiers. Against a Western society the revolutionary commits small terrorist acts in order to provoke authorities into overreacting. The goal is to drive a wedge between the people and the authorities so as to unite the people into a sea in which the revolutionaries can swim.

In Georgia the opposite is true. The Russians are an alien force with no local roots or loyalty to speak of. Even the Ossetians are foreign hirelings for them. The Georgians have no interest in provoking the Russians to commit atrocities. The Georgians have an interest in killing the Russians and driving them out. The nature of the campaign changes but that does not mean less violence but more. The Georgians need to target Russian logistics, isolated units and communications. Attacks must be planned, coordinated and punishing to force the Russians to first Laager and then withdraw. Within Russia proper I would expect a campaign of sabotage and terror to accelerate.