#60 Angel Martin

If I may intrude, might I suggest that in the absence of rationality [or what we consider rationality from our point of view. It may be that from their viewpoint they are being strictly rational, albeit incomprehensibly to us] then first we accept that there is no possibility of deterrence, which requires rational calculations from a shared frame of reference. Since 1979, there has been no sign of a shared frame of reference.

In that case, you look at their capabilities, and while you take into account what they say, you do not try to judge intentions. If you make a mistake in judging intentions, you can lose everything. Instead you look at their full range of capabilities and figure the worst case scenario involving them. And based on that, add a fudge factor to cover what you may not know, and deal with them on the basis of them posing that level of threat.

With Iran, we have to assume that they will attack us and/or our allies and be ready to deal with that.

With this administration in power, there will be no such dealing or attempts to defend. Therefore, we must be ready to be hit, hard, repeatedly; until we have a National Command Authority willing to hit back. And if we reach that point, the Three Conjectures is a best case scenario. Our enemies hold the initiative, and we can only wait.

Subotai Bahadur