Dan 7, I come to a similar conclusion after reading the Cordesman document that the country who should be most afraid is Saudi Arabia.

An Iranian first strike on Saudi does the following:

1) proves both weapons and missile capabilities

2) strikes a country that the American population might not be crazy about defending

3) takes out the largest crude oil exporter in the world, benefitting both Iran and Russia

as with any first move, the unintended consequences escalate in ways that my simple brain cannot comprehend, so i have no idea whether it could simply stop at that.

but i would be worried if I were in Saudi’s shoes