Turkey controls access to the Black Sea physically, but the Dardanelles and the Bosporus are considered “international waters” so we can sail right in any time, right? Safge berthage is another matter.

Turkey determines whether or not we have flyover access to Georgia from Incirlik which is pretty far away.

We are supposed to have some sort of basing agreements with Romania. Is that at Constanta on the Black Sea? Constanta has a fairly direct air route to Ramstein by way of Hungary and Austria.

Bulgaria borders Serbia and Macedonia, not so helpful, and Greece which could provide and air corridor from Bulgaria to Italy or wherever.

If Turkey is waffling over a grand alliance [as a junior partner] with Iran and Russia, we really can’t project power in the Trans-Caucasus or the Caspian until they choose. Until then we depend on our German friends to host a very out of the way air supply to Georgia.

Best for us:
Turkey chooses to go the “globalist” route and stand as a guarantor of Black Sea and Trans-Causcasian neutrality between Russian and the Persians. Turkey can’t depend on Europe to buffer the Russkies, but Eastern Europe, in spite of ancient enmities, with our Patriot missiles and truck mounted laser anti-anything, well …