Yes, it will take decades, or even centuries to definitively tease the anthropogenic forcings from natural cycles. From the measurement perspective, we just don’t have enough data in the temporal series to identify all of the natural cycles. We must graft proxy data onto the left hand tail of the time series – resulting in an error term greater than the changes predicted by the models. From an analysis perspective, we are expecting a non-linear system to behave like a gaussian distribution. The gamble of the modelers is that a derivative of a derivative, annual mean global temperature, will reveal discernible and meaningful linear trends. How this datum translates into linkages with specific predictions of the effects of “Climate Change” is a question of intuition and art rather than empirical science.

We live on the flank of a volcano. We know that it very well might erupt at any time. We are compelled to sacrifice virgins, “do something” to placate the angry gods.