here’s how i see it:
in many posts I see posters trying to imagine Russian leadership planning for the long term. I don’t think they do. I think it is useful to approach them as an criminal organization, like the North Korean leadership more obviously is.
These guys, strategically, are a one trick pony (most Corleones are, I say) — just like the Chechen war was ignited to bring Putin in as the public’s favorite, so has this campaign (mostly done by Chechen (Russian-loyalist) forces) served to bring Medvedev into the public eye as a tough leader. It seems that the biggest win of this for Putin/Medvedev is internal — the public rallies, their “OneRussia” party gathers strength, commonfolk put up with more hardship since it’s Americans’ fault. On the foreign front I doubt they’ll hurt much — that would be losing hydrocarbons market share.