There are two big risks for the US in Pakistan without Musharraf:

1. Chaotic, no one in charge politics leads to defacto blockade of US re supply in Afghanistan, creating an Alamo-Chosin Reservoir defeat of US forces, running out of ammo, fuel, food, water, etc.

2. Chaotic, no one in charge politics leads to loss of control over the nuclear arsenal, and Taliban/AQ getting and using a few nukes on American cities.

We are likely to see both happen, and a direct conflict between the fantasy of utopian elites like Obama, Dems, Media, etc. and the hard reality of the erosion of military dominance by nuclear proliferation.

Can we retaliate if Pakistan does not even exist other than a nominal state with squabbling political coalitions? No. We’ll lose cities and won’t be able to retaliate. How can we? Legalism and the desire for fantasies will prevent any response to stop the mass-killing by nukes. Until the fear over-rides the fantasies and the US “solves” the problem with finality.

IF DC or NYC were nuked today, and tens of millions of US dead, the cry would go out “why do they hate us?” and the usual apologies would be made. Any retaliatory response would threaten the power base of the elites and so would be off-limits. Until more cities died and sheer self-survival led to overthrow of the elites.

But we are going to find out that nations led by Entertainment-Legal-Financial-Minority Grievance coalitions of elites cannot respond to absolute ruthlessness by tribal leaders armed with nuclear weapons. Nukes in the world demand absolute seriousness in modern nations, including the demonstrated willingness to wipe out dangers when red lines are crossed. Fantasies of imposing legal and moral restraints on people and groups with none, will come up a disaster. No end of history, Clintonian parties for the US.