There is an alternative model for the Martian: Obama is a perfectly rational liar. Hopefully, not a pathological liar. In that case, absent knowledge of Obama’s endgame, predicting his moves becomes difficult and subject to unforseen variance. The Martian must construct a model of Obama based not on Obama, because Obama has assiduously hidden all public and private records regarding himself, but on who Obama associates himself with and what is known about their beliefs and goals.