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The fire in Russia

August 17, 2008 - 4:33 pm - by Richard Fernandez
neolex
2008-08-18 08:56:16

@neolex
I do not see how your questions are relevant to my position which is: Cutting Georgia in halves, is almost the same like not cutting it, or cutting it in quarters, or eights. The work by Russians is done. 2-4 checkpoints make no difference. It is just technicalities, not a kind of a mean strategy. But your questions are interesting, so i am going to try…
1.Why did Russia cross the SO border in the first place?One of the goals of the involvement (may be the main one) was to defeat Georgian military and to humiliate Georgia, and her president M. Saakashvilly personally. (Why,-this is a another question, not on your list). Had they stopped on the border, it would not be a 100% defeat.
>>>Humiliating someone is something you do to a co-worker. Humiliating is not a goal given to military commanders. Why not drop the pretense and avoid using euphemisms. Russia’s goal was to remove Saakashvili. Going across SO border carries with it a high diplomatic cost, so the only sufficiently important for Russia to do it is to remove Saakashvili. This alone indicates that it is not about South Ossetia.

2.Why has it refused to leave, so far? They start moving tomorrow. It has been just 1 week after the beginning of the conflict. The French Foreign Minister Mr. Kushner said yesterday: “If the sides stick to the agreement and have it implemented, this war is going to be one of the shortest in the history, and the seas-fire- the fastest to have been ever achieved”. So, it is not too late yet. Let the Russian to leave with dignity, as I said.
>>>You haven’t answered my question. Russia has refused to leave so far and only promised beginning of a “pull-back” on monday. Why?

3.Why was non-military infrastructure destroyed?
This is something they copy from the NATO actions in Yugoslavia in 2003. They learned NATO’s recipe for this kind of situation. And the situation is pretty much alike. Yet they did not use as many infrastructural strikes, as NATO did.
>>>Yes, this was very reminiscent of NATO in Serbia. The bombing of civilian infrastructure are punitive measures against Georgia. However, in case of NATO they were conducted to force Serbia out of Kosovo. In this case Russia already controlled all of SO territory, so the question as to reason behind those measures remains, as they must justify the high diplomatic and PR cost. Again, they have nothing to do with protecting SO.

4.Why was rampaging by SO thugs allowed?
They are not allowed. It is hard to control the looting thugs. Russians brought just about 11000 troops there. They are combat troops, not MP. They were not going to occupy the city of Gori or to station garrisons in every Georgian village. There are to many villages. The area has ethnically mixed population with a long history of mutual hatred and hostilities. And the population is impoverished. So, they just go to the abandoned villages and grab the things they want. Had the Georgian Army won their war, and had Ossetians fled to Russia, the Georgian thugs would do the same. How many Serbs were killed in Kosovo when it fell under the NATO control? How many Serbian houses were looted? How many Churches were burned down? How much of looting took place in Iraq? Including weapons warehouses and museums? Why Americans allowed that?
>>>Employing hypotheticals is not a way to win an argument. Nor is outright lying. You know, as well as I do, that Russian military was complicit in the looting. This could simply be manifestation of the Russian character, however, it more likely that it was a delibarate attempt, on part of Russians, to undermine Saakashvili’s power indirectly by creating large numbers of Georgians who are angry about the war and their only outlet would be Saakasvhili. I doubt you can provide better reasoning. It is also notable that once photographs and stories began appearing in foreign press, there was an order to begin to control looting and it stopped, so you argument does not hold water.

5.Why has Russia advanced its troops to 30km from Tbilisi during Rice’s visit? Well, I do not think they tried to capture Sweet Condi. Georgia is a “short distances country”. They just could not stop because of the momentum.
>>>Momentum? What kind of BS is that? Is Russian military a giant ball rolling downhill that cannot be stopped? Military does not do delibarate actions like that by “momentum”. The reason was very clear. Winning a better bargaining position and forcing Saakasvhili to sign the agreement, giving Russia 6-10km of Georgian territory for patrols. This, again indicates that the conflict is not about SO.

Why did Medvyedev say “Russia will think twice about using force next time”?
Did he? Never heard about that.
>>>http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369839.htm