I think Pakistan is unlikely to “fall” in the short term. If it gets messy enough, the military will likely step in. But this doesn’t answer the long term question of what will happen to a country which has nuclear weapons but no really stable institutions.

You can always “call” Pakistan like a radio announcer calling a riot in the streets. But that wouldn’t tell you much more than who was hitting who. What we are really interested in is getting to a situation where Pakistan can be “fixed” so it will prosper, thereby de-fanging Islamism and improving the lives of Pakistanis. The $64 million question, to which I have no clue, is whether anyone or anything can fix Pakistan.