is the price of oil high due to market forces? or artificially high?

if it is artificially high, then it can fall at the drop of the hat

suppose the easiest oil to find & pump is less abundent than once, the mentality is that it is now finite, and that hoarding, or planning for the end of a country’s good run would seem prudent (ie cut back pumping and jack the price up)

also, suppose that there’s mucho oil that remains; but, it takes more effort to get it out – that is okay; but, if it takes more effort, then the market will need to reflect that in it’s pricing. additionally, prudence would dictate re-investing the necessary portion of proceeds in order to sustain and grow the corporation…

…unfortunately, the recent trend towards nationalization of major oil producer’s oil fields has thrown the market equilibrium off;

these guys aren’t subject to the same market forces and etiquette as a corporation (duh)

instead of working along side the companies that have developed the technology over decades and invested in their countries, these nations have unprofessionally & short-sightedly chosen to confiscate the fish rather than learning to fish, counting on being able to afford/find an accomplices down the road when they need re-investment…so, they’re pocketing the profits, and in the back of their mind, figuring that any that remains in the ground is like money in the bank…

to date, their typical response to their state of ever more dependence on this sugar-tit is to postpone paying the piper and instead ratcheting up the rhetoric and viola!
tit out of the wringer!! (sounds like something congress would do, doesn’t it?)

this has introduced alot of “surprises”, and the oil market does not like surprises…witness the price curve and it’s evident that the market is being spooked

if the traditional western oil companies decide they must transition away from owning reserves in countries where the political climate is too risky (where alot of the cheap oil happens to be), to the business of supplying technology, they too will be spooked as the status quo is shook up

additionally, this has got to introduce inefficiencies; especially, as the fields age, as that is when the technology is most needed in order to avoid having to move on…

…so by evading the traditional companies with the know how / technology, and the corresponding costs that go along with it, there’s a good chance that they’ll be locked into looking to move on at an ever increasing rate, to locate fields where more basic technologies will work…

if the reserves are too hard to get out of the ground, they don’t count for much

it would seem to be more efficient to drain down a given field as much as feasible before moving on

all this to state that the price of oil’s sawtooth curve is not good for the development of alternatives;
the hope that these producers would provide alternatives to mideast oil and provide sanctuary in a more multi-facetted market, have not come to fruition

it is time to set into the idea that the wusski’s are counting on pivoting the EU into their camp, as evidenced by the large amount of infrastructure they’ve put / have planned. they hope the EU will not only provide the market; but, also the technology for the further development of russia’s field…like junkies hanging out with the pusher

it is also time to expect this new partnership to at least equal OPEC in the manipulation of the price of oil

all this to say it (the fluctuations) will only get worse, and sound policy is a must, as the only thing that will dampen this will be alternatives to the current so easily manipulated sources of energy