Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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September 8, 2009 - 2:14 am - by Richard Fernandez
Lifeofthemind
2009-09-08 08:51:11

RWE,
A certain, perhaps decisive, percentage of the public will care that they were used and lied to and that there really was a cover up. Remember it wasn’t the 3rd rate burglary that destroyed Nixon. People don’t like being publicly exposed as chumps. The real hard core ‘will stick by BHO no matter what base’ are not that large, most Blacks (10% of the vote, but BHO is really an outsider and the Jesse Jackson and Establishment Blacks may dump him), whiskey’s sluts (another 10% at best and only until it becomes uncool), real true believers of the Old/New Left (maybe 15%?). As the air goes out his support should sink to 25-30%. Just look at the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Today he is at -11 and yesterday he was at -13 but the trend is steady. By November he should be solidly in the -15 to -20 range and the second slump is yet to hit the economy.

That does not mean that I counsel complacency. Far from it. All that I mean is do not despair. We simply have to do the basic unromantic spadework of local politics.