The question of divine providence comes into the mind that this conflict happened when it did. Georgia knew that Russia was going to invade and Russia was impatient. America really did not want a distraction of a Russia – Georgia war. Typically America was less concerned about Georgian interest than our own and willing to believe that Russia would not revert back to adventurism. But what we want and what we get are two different items.

Signs of Russia increasing the testing of western nations have been evident for several years. The refusal to react, obviously led Medeyev to the conclusion that Western Europe will not take any significant action against Russian action to secure the BZC pipeline.

Russia probably has been seducing the Islamic leaning government of Erdogan of Turkey to neutralize Turkey’s possible interference

America under Bush is finishing up the Iraq experiment and finally, a couple years later than anticipated, getting to a government that is marginally capable. This came from the military trying a bottom up approach rather than the top down approach that State Dept did originally. The bottom up from tribal political to regional and then to national agreements is slower and messier. The governed having their will and interests respected by society and government will be more stable. If we can keep the Shia from trying to shove out the Sunni it might work out.

However Iraq taking more time and effort than anticipated, screwed up the timing and wore out the domestic will for another adventure in Iran. America cannot afford the same type of rebuilding of Iran if we took them on in an invasion. Iran’s bellicosity demands a response and their drive to become a nuclear power still needs to be stopped. Iran will use that to intimidate the Middle East and probably will shove other nations in a nuclear race for protection.

Europe has wasted the time and Russia has interfered as much as possible. The timing for a strike will be after the elections since political reality in the US is a paramount consideration. So George Bush really did not want to take on the reorganizing a change in mission for NATO, Europe and the US to consider Russia an enemy rather than an economic competitor.

But little Georgia has precipitated this reassessment by the US. Georgia survival depended on this gamble and damaged and broken Georgia will win the gamble.
The bordering Eastern European nations having fewer blinkers on are rapidly reassessing their needs and alliances. More pressure on America to protect these border countries.

Medeyev had a meeting in Russia of it diplomats in July where they were given the new mission of Russia. According to reports Medeyev said that the institutional blocks in Europe are crumbling and have not the core purpose and will to resist or prevent Russia’s resurgence. I would have said that assessment of NATO was correct. But this premature adventure has woken NATO up to its original purpose, to contain Russia.

NATO originally did protect the border invasion route countries from Russia. The border has just been pushed back to Poland. Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The new nations will be the energy and will to drive NATO new policies and future purpose. NATO was never meant to protect the US; it was designed to force European nations to collectively react to a Russian invasion.

The undiplomatic talk of Russian diplomats and ministers are the line they were told to take from Medeyev. However they have prematurely scared the prey. The prey will reassess their true dangers and plan accordingly.

If Russia loses its gambit in the Ukraine and Georgia it will turn to Azerbaijan to secure the oil. It will try seduction and Russian puppet strings on the government with careful eliminations of obstacles of particular politicians who stand in the way. Assassination is a tool the Putin uses to effect profitable change and revenge.

This 21st century will see many hot spots in the drive to secure energy and material sources by Russia and China. The next 50 years will not be as peaceful as the last 50 years.

In order to survive, prosper and maintain our superior position we need to refocus on what are the real dangers from the Muslim colonization of Europe and the conflicts between Russia and China.

We also need to secure our domestic will, the constant damaged to our will from the 5th element in the US will have to be addressed. America is very vulnerable to internal ideological challenges

We allowed Russia to infiltrate the western institutional systems and we need to weed Russia from those. Getting any power and influence of Russia out of NATO is needed. Hopefully they will talk about that on Tuesday. So a new NATO may arise from the ashes of the old with the vigorous new blood of the Eastern European nations.