It was not until I read wretchard’s links did I become aware that the Russian-Ukrainian friendship treaty expires in December of this year.
Have no doubt about it, if a plebiscite were held in the Crimean Autonomous Republic, anschluss with Russia would win overwhelmingly.
The Russian majority in Crimea was a center of support for Yanukovych and the Regions Party (The Blues). The Orange Revolution in Kyiv was viewed with suspicion and alarm. When Yushchenko won the run off election the results were accepted reluctantly, but, with a largely unspoken hope that closer ties with the west would bring greater prosperity.
The economy has only gotten worse in the three years since. Rising energy prices and devaluation of the hrivnya has only reduced people’s buying power even as more stuff is available to buy.
(I have been very critical of Volodya Putin’s failure to reform the Russian economy. Viktor Yushchenko and both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko as PMs have similarly failed to reform Ukraine. Politics in Kyiv mostly seems to be about which tribe of oligarchs benefits from the next round of privatization, or review of previous rounds. Tymoshenko in particular has spent most of her energies on nationalist symbolism without any significant economic reform. The red tape required to start a business, hire employees or earn self employed income is absolutely surreal. Not only has there been no progress, but new requirements that all official business be conducted in the Ukrainian language have made it more of a nuisance and more expensive – Ukrainian, to some extent, is an artificial language derived from literary usage without a long tradition of legal or contract use. This is a wild exagerration, but think about using Ebonics in a legal context, you would need Barbara Billingsley to translate for you, even if you did vaguely understand. Ukraine remains a country without a viable banking system. There still is not an ATM or business where you could use a credit card in all of Crimea. People still carry their cash money around in shopping bags. The Orange Revolution has not delivered substantive reform or progress.)
Crimea’s chief source of income is tourism, and its chief source of tourists is Russia. Over the last three years the Russians of Crimea have watched as their cousins in Russia grow more affluent. It is becoming apparent that Kyiv will not soon deliver the expected bonanza from close ties with the west. Volodya Putin is a rock star in Crimea and I have heard many expressions of confidence that he will find a way to bring Crimea home so that they can share in Russia’s wealth.
Another incendiary issue is the Crimea Tatars. Expelled by Stalin in 1944 because of some collaboration with the Nazis, Tatars were not allowed to return to Crimea until 1989. The returnees are pressing claims for expropriated properties held by ethnic Russians. Because the Crimean Tatar Majlis supported the Orange Revolution, Kyiv has given them support in their claims. The Russians are outraged because they have completely accepted the narrative that the Tatars are *traitors.*
The most notable political event over the last couple of years has been the protests against the participation of US Marines in the Sea Breeze 2006 exercise. An unlikely alliance of the Communist Party and Russian Orthodox clergy protested the arrival of the marines at Simferopol and then prevented them from travelling to Feodosia. Ultimately their participation was cancelled and the Crimean Duma declared Crimea a “Nato Free Zone.”
When the current treaty was negotiated, Russia used Crimea’s autonomous status as a bargaining chip. When the current treaty expires, the kremlin can be expected to increase its pressure and the Crimean Russians may become surprisingly vocal in their support for the kremlin.
