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By Richard Fernandez

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The last nation 2

August 16, 2008 - 4:00 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Dave
2008-08-16 22:28:39

nichievo: No chance to answer you on previous post, so will butt in here—–beg your pardon wretchard and everybody else.

Lawyer friend of mine has specialized in oilfield bankruptcies since the mid 1980s.
He says that current sitrep is about like 1982-84, “standing on the cusp” is how he put it. Oil could easily slide under $90 a barrel. That happens, producers do not hire drilling rigs, or pulling units, or seismographs, or mud men or a jillion other things needed to keep oilfields humming. All those people cannot pay their debts and the ability to produce and even maintain suffers greatly. Has taken 20 years to get West Texas back to the capabilities lost 1985 to 1987. $8 a barrel was disastrous.

HOWEVER: This time would not be because the per barrel price is too low—-$80 to $90 a barrel is not—–but because the market for the crude is too uncertain. Nobody knows what
the income will be. It is like putting in 40 hours a week right now and being told 3 months from now how much you will be paid.

Should another 1980s style scenario occur, I would definitely fear for the survivial of our domestic industry.

Hope this clarifies things for you.