John Samford:

“So their one slim hope is that the USA will not fight back. That seems like a slim reed to me, but I’m NOT a former KGB officer. SO far it looks like Puttie was right.”
The game is still young, and sine we are in a REAL liberal democracy, we are slow to war, slow to commit blood to the fight. While who lead the country matters, the fact is that American’s seem to pick the right leaders for the right time. I was honestly shocked that we put boots on the ground in Afghanistan and actually got Congress to vote to commit to a preemptive invasion of Iraq. (Smoldering ruins in New York City seemed to silence our gutless-left-of-center politicians.)

But the truth is, America will “soldier-up” when the time comes. We don’t have a autocracy, and Bush can’t rush American kids to fight for Georgia absent treaty obligations or a compelling national interest. Iraq and it’s geographically strategic position in a newly militant, threatening Middle East fit that bill, and it took literally years to evolve to that decision. Georgia, while our allies, are not allies by treaty. It sucks, but I understand why we aren’t moving militarily now.

“He never did say what he saw when he looked in Bush’s eye? Naked fear, perhaps? ” That’s got to be pretty far from the truth, and the FSB boys are not fools. (Well, maybe they are, but they had ring side seats to the show for the last 7 years, and Bush doesn’t blink when the game is on the line.)

Bush, unfortunately, isn’t a factor. Unlike Putin and other fascist, he will leave office this year. America will help Georgia, but we cannot save them today. This is a lesson to every free democracy; a strong military is a expensive necessity, but it is a necessity none the less. The lesson to the rest of the buffer states is clear: Open up their economy, FORGET imitating the Western European basket-case welfare state, and put substantial tax $$$ into their Defense infrastructure. They can and should make alliances with NATO, the US, and other buffer states, but when the balloon goes up, they will face the Russian machine alone. How much damage the Russian rapists do will depend on the courage and preparation of the young men wearing uniforms.

Georgia prepared, but they had 20 years, and they did too-little, too-late. The game isn’t over and the full story is still untold, but what I’ve read and heard thus far indicates that Georgia’s military was still too immature, ill-equipped, and of course small, to form an adequate deterrent to Russia. Folks miss the point entirely when I hear them say as common wisdom “… of course, they could not oppose a Russian invasion..”. The point is not to be able to win battles at the outset. The goal is to be able to PROJECT the ability to hurt the enemy sufficiently that you DETER them from committing forces to the field. The USA has no excuse for forming a military that can win against any foe, or combination of foes – we have the assets and resources. But smaller countries can form an effective deterrent. Most large to mid-sized European countries can field those forces. The Georgians appear to have had inadequate forces, young and inexperienced leaders, inadequate equipment, and a poorly defined (if perhaps much improved) Order of Battle. They took too long to prepare their defense, and when the Bear arrived, they were unprepared. At least, that’s what I’ve heard thus far. I hope to hear better, i.e. of irregular forces bloodying the Russians and perhaps even striking deep into Russian (i.e. logistic strikes).