“just can’t figure out some things about this invasion. Even within its own logic, some things just don’t add up.”
Absolutely. I’m wondering how much internal pressure Putin is under. The KGB agents posting disinformation here and all across the web are saying things are just rosy, peachy keen, nothing to see here folks, just move along.
Coming from a Russian, that should lift the hair on your neck.
I could work up a theory that certain elements in the Kremlin want their empire back and they expect Puttie to deliver.
They are correct about the SDI elements going into Poland. IIRC, the Russian have about 800 ICBM’s allowed them by SALT II. I don’t think SALT II, which cut that in half was ever ratified.
Soviet weapons beyond a certain level of complexity were not reliable. Nuttin more complex then a thermonuclear warhhead and it’s ICBM.
The USA had the same problem and went to a triad system until the reliability issue was resolved. The Soviets nevr really had that option, what with them not being able to build a bomber that had a real chance of delivering a nuke. Their Subs were junk. So they HAD to depend on their ICBM’s to deliver the goods.
Those ICBM’s had about a 50% failure rate ( compared to 15% for US Missiles of that same period. So half the Missiles launched would not lift off or guide to their target. Estimates on Warhead reliability was about 30% would actually work.
So a Soviet strike with 600 ICBM’s (leaving 200 for followup shots) would see about about 300 actually on track to hit a target. Of those 300, 90 or so could be expected to work.
The Soviet estimate was that they needed to hit 84 US targets to win the war. So that is why they agreed to the 1200 total warhead limit and why they didn’t agree to cut it to 600. The Soviets couldn’t increase their reliability to the point where 600 would be certain to cover the 84 targets.
Politicians, regardless of their government type, are control freaks. They only play card games where the deck is stacked in their favor. SDI knocked ALL those percentages right out the window. SDI NEVER had to get a 100% kill rate to work. Getting a 50% kill rate was enough. 50% is enough to make using nukes a real risky proposition. Now instead of 90 you have 45. With a 3 layer system that gets another little bite with each layer, that 800 missile launch could be as small as a dozen nukes on target, or it could be 600. One never knows, which to a control freak is a detterent in and of itself.
The Russian, like the Soviets they still are, have nothing even close to SDI. We offered them it, thinking it would ease their paranoia. It couldn’t. So the Russians have to understand that American weapons work. To many battlefields littered with burning Soviet gear for them not to. American ICBM’s WILL go to their target and they WILL ignite.
So their one slim hope is that the USA will not fight back. That seems like a slim reed to me, but I’m NOT a former KGB officer. SO far it looks like Puttie was right.
He never did say what he saw when he looked in Bush’s eye? Naked fear, perhaps?
Anyway, as the US lead in weapons technology increases, it’s willingness to use those weapons decreases. Somewhere in the Kremlin, there is a graph and those two lines have intersected.
