Russia seems to be following Venezuela, which seems to be following Zimbabwe. Nationalize anything productive, distribute anything of value to cronies incapable of managing it, concentrate on extractive industries rather than those that create value, and focus the elite’s interests on shiny luxury goods from the West.

These regimes seem vulnerable to three things: (1) comparison to neighbors; (2) succession; or (3) spiraling economic collapse. Unfortunately, the usual reaction to these three problems usually involves selecting a scapegoat on the other side of the border and picking a fight. Of course, mugging the Jones family doesn’t make you look any better in comparison to the Smiths, there are still younger thugs meaning to depose the older, and the economy is probably doing much the same as it was before — less the costs of your war, plus your booty, minus your sanctions.