Whiskey,

I am with you on 1, 2, and 3 (though I am wary of the “cling” argument). But 4 I am not so sure about.

What is so special about cheap oil? It is only our domestic politics that keeps us from exploring our territory with modern methods and drilling our own. We have no need for mercantilism, since political pressure is building for us to have access to our own resources. There are also political roadblocks keeping us from, say, building more nuke plants and mining more coal, which would allow us to adapt to the absence of oil.

My point is, you’re going too far with #4. The suppliers of foreign oil will flood the market if the US and others seriously start looking at removing the blocks on our own resources.