@neolex:
As to Turkey, they would never close the traits to US.
What if we’ve been out-maneouvred in “the Great Game” wherein Iran promised Turkey Most Favored Nation status as Iran’s gateway to the Mediterranean and the Balkans? The quid pro quo is that Muscovitties get the Trans-Causcasus.
They, of course agree to jack up prices to whatever levels they see fit. Shiver yer timbers, Euro-weenies!
Even though Iran is ceding any hope for suzereinty over the ‘stans as well as the existing pipe and rail lines to China, they never had a chance on the flatlands of Central Asia against the Muskoviki, anyway. This way they get a compliant client state in Turkey who will be a dependable ally against the Kurds and nestle tenderly in their arms for protection against the said Musk-oxian Horde.
The Chinese have to be horrified to see the Persions and Muscovites divvy up Central Asia, again.
Apart from sending the fabled two million man army to Armeggedon via Urumqi, what are Les Chinois gonna do? Call Musk-busters?
On the other hand, if we let Pooty bloody Georgia while we crush Iran… Turkey will have a lot of crow to eat. Is crow Halal? Not very.
If the Perians and the Muscovites are rolling the dice in the Greatest Gamble of All Time (yet), things will look much bleaker before they look better.
Russia cannot possibly simultaneously engage all the recent escapees. A pro US coalition of Ukraine (see, no “the”), Bulgaria, Georgia and the Azeri’s could make the Turks beg for admission to the Black Sea & Trans-Caucasian Treaty Organization, as a probationary member of course.
That all depends upon our willingness to utterly crush the Iranians and feed the ex-Soviet states the weapons they need to destroy poor mad Ivan “in detail”.
BTW:
Don’t tell my wife I’m talking like this. She was a real Pionirka, fast-tracked to join The Party. Being a true Girl Scout at heart, she declined the offer of inside access to dirty power (which YK membership provided) in favor of living a simple and honest life. She embodies the finest elements of the Russian character–and believes in it–and we will do well to always be quick to recognize and encourage the millions of little Russian “outsiders” living inside Russia under siloviki boot heels.
