Not that I’m exactly stuck on stupid, but…. Radio Free Europe interview with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.
excerpt:
RFE/RL: Some experts believe that the West does not realize that if Georgia came under Russian control, it would allow Russia to create a wider common strategic space that would unite Russia and Iran, and end in the Gulf. So in a way, the recent actions are an encouragement for Iran to pursue similar prospects. Can any connection be drawn between the recent events in the Caucasus and Russia’s poor cooperation with efforts to resolve the Iranian problem?
Bryza: I don’t know. I think this decision to invade Georgia and try to overthrow its democratically elected leadership was one of the most ill-advised and simply stupid decisions in my career in foreign policy, and it is a mistake that is probably as devastating to Moscow’s reputation as the disastrous invasion of Afghanistan. There must have been a number of motivations floating around in an uncoordinated way for a decision to be made that was this bad, this poorly thought out, and this damaging to Russia. So I don’t know what role Iran played in this.
I know that in the past, and especially in the energy sector, Russia has openly talked about plans to establish a gas cartel with Iran. And I know that for years Russia has tried to buy the North-South pipeline that is here in Georgia. We worked very hard for this purchase not to happen, because clearly Russia was trying to link up its gas system through Armenia — where there is a pipeline link to Iran — to Iran, where Gazprom has an investment which has failed to produce much gas. So it’s obvious what Russia was trying to do with pipelines: it was trying to establish a gas cartel, and move gas from South Pars, in a country that is trying to develop nuclear weapons, through Armenia, through Georgia, into Russia, and deepen its monopoly over the European gas market. That, in my mind, is a fact. But I don’t think that that was the consideration motivating this strategic blunder.
