I think I mentioned this a while back, but the great sociologist Max Weber wrote a lot about charisma and its role in organizational transformation. He had a cycle that described the stages of organizational development:

Crisis or Opportunity leads to the emergence of the Charismatic Leader
Charisma leads to Authority
Authority leads to Change
Change leads to Success
Success leads to Growth
Growth leads to Scale
Scale leads to Routinization
Routinization leads to Tradition
Tradition leads to Stasis
Stasis leads to Crisis or Opportunity

At each step, there is a risk that the cycle ends because of some flaw. For instance, the Charismatic Leader can be denied Authority; or Authority can fail to create Change. Real transformation only occurs when the cycle gets as far as Routinization; in fact, Weber’s writing in this area is referred to as the routinization of charisma.

My read of the President is that he is a Charismatic Leader of the type described by Weber. But there are at least two steps that I believe could end his cycle of leadership:

Authority leads to Change. For all his promotion of Change, President Obama has not been able to change much. Yet. For instance, if there was an issue on which he made it clear during his campaign that he would change, it was Gitmo. But, despite his campaign promises and presidential pronouncements, Gitmo remains open and will likely stay open for some time: perhaps forever. Winning an election is easy compared to legislative change. Arguably, the only legislative “success” he has so far is the “stimulus,” and that was as much a continuation and expansion of Bush policies. If he fails on Cap and Trade or healthcare, he will not only fail to get Change, but he is liable to lose his Charismatic Authority.

Change leads to Success. Here’s where he’s really vulnerable. Even if he gets his Change, it is almost certain to fail. Let’s just take healthcare, and say his program passes. We’re going to see the most awful disruptions in people’s lives. Doctors will opt out of the public system, and lots of folks will be pissed that they have to switch physicians. Hospitals will start going bankrupt as the public insurance “option” becomes the only game in town, and they no longer get the subsidy from private insurance that keeps the current system financially solvent. And I especially like the way in which 10 million uninsured citizens will still be uninsured in 10 years, but this is being spun as Obamacare “covering 97% of all Americans.” Meanwhile, the economic impact of huge tax increases combined with companies abandoning employer-provided insurance – forcing most people into a national healthcare insurance program – will throw more people out of work and be a serious drag on economic growth.

So, if he gets his Change, it will wreak havoc, and we will all suffer. The Weberian cycle will end, and he will go down in history, not as a Transformational Leader, but a Transgressional Loser. It will take years, perhaps decades, to undo the damage, but it will be undone because it is inconsistent both with America’s historic principles, and also with reason that swing voters broke his way (he came off as a calm, measured moderate as McCain wigged out and suspended his campaign). As independents figure out what he’s done, his approval numbers will slip into Bush43 2009 territory.

By the time he’s done, he’ll be lucky if his face ends up on a molehill.

L3