From the post and the comments, certain truths can be gleaned:

1) China is a force to be reckoned with that has a high probability of causing trouble. It does not necessarily follow that military conflict with China is inevitable. Do keep in mind that Britain and Argentina went to war over some small islands, despite the fact that both have solid, urbane Western credentials (that’s correct. Even with a military junta, Argentina was more European than Latin American in 1982). We could bumble our way into such a conflict with China if both sides are not careful.

2) It’s imperative that the U.S. maintian a large and potent Navy in perpetuity. Even our infant Republic maintained more Navy than they did land forces in peacetime. The one time the Navy was cut back — by President Jefferson — it led to a pathetic situation where the only “weapon” the U.S. had to combat British and French depredations at sea was an embargo of those countires’ goods. This caused an American economic depression. A very strong Marine contingent as part of the Navy is also vital and indispensible. Our powerful navy is also one of the World’s most recognized forces for good, having the greatest capability of anyone to effectively help in the case of major natural disasters and man-made human catastrphies as well.

3) We have to urge and get used to the idea of Japan taking a larger share of the military burden in the Western Pacific. I have the impression that the Japanese are slowly warming to and waking up to that necessity.

4) We have to deal with the real China, and not the China of distortion and fevered imagination. China is a mixed bag. It is wealthy, but not as wealthy as once thought. The IMF downgraded its estimate of Chinese GDP from $9 trillion to $6 trillion, for instance (as compared to the U.S. at $14 trillion). It is still a $6 trillion economy, however. It appears that many Chinese communities riot out of frustration because they don’t have a representative government or a true rule of law. This will hold China back, and has the potential of causing major internal strife. However, if I ere to visit China, I am not likely to stumble across any riots or other internal strife. China is a big place, and is not in turmoil across the board. It is not in danger of imminent collaps like the Old Soviet Union.