“A strong US should not fear China … I think China and the US need each other but the US has to rediscover its sense of cultural strength.”

I agree. The U.S. should be firm — but not hawkish — with China. The closer the trade relationship and economies are intertwined, the less incentive there is to go to war.

I agree also that Taiwan is a flashpoint but it can be handled well by all three of the relevant parties. There is nothing to it but maintaining the status quo, with none of the parties rocking the boat. The Bush administration has done extremely well here, by dampening the Taiwanese fervor for irresponsible statements and attempts at formal independence. With Ma in office now and taking a more conciliatory approach to China, cross-straits relations are better than at any other point in recent history.

Beijing prefers the status quo and peaceful incorporation of Taiwan into China in the long term. Macau and Hong Kong have shown the way.

Any war over Taiwan with U.S. involvement is going to be costly for all sides, and to what end? It is in everybody’s long term interests to keep to the status quo for as long as possible, then sort it out when the time is ripe. China isn’t going to stay authoritarian forever. Internally, its politics will change. So a lose federation with China in the future is not out of the question.

For its part, China will hold to principle and territorial integrity and will not aggressively assert it unless provoked. Given the current balance of power in the straits, a prudent ‘wait it out’ policy for all sides virtually recommends itself.