Robohobo [1509hrs] Yup, you’re right about the border, but don’t forget the ‘internal’ political dynamic concerning Nicaragua. Ortega [re]gained the presidency by declaring that he was a ‘changed’ man. He was elected with a plurality, not an ‘overwhelming’ majority.

Declaring hostilities against Honduras and throwing in with Chavez [let's set aside the issue of Venezuelan troops pouring into the country...], would let everyone know that the ‘new’ Ortega is a LIE. So, unless he’s going to do a ‘two-for-one’: i.e.-seize power and throw in with Chavez, he’s constrained UNLESS [my] scenario [C] kicks in. With the fig leaf of a ‘International / Central American unity’ mandate in his pocket, Ortega could begin mischief against Honduras, but there’s NO guarantee his domestic opponents would remain silent.

Well, be that as it may, this situation is still playing out. For the moment, the main action is taking place within the ‘halls’ of the OAS. So, unless Chavez [with Obama's help, overt or covert] can roll the majority of the OAS states into backing his position, things will remain as they are.

Obama COULD take the role of ‘standing up for democracy’, but facts are not on his side. Of course, that wouldn’t stop him, but by siding with a proven would-be tyrant he runs the risk of getting a ‘label’ he might not be able to shake off BEFORE the 2010 elections.

That might be the ONLY thing that gives him pause.