RAH,

Almost completely agree, with the exception of the status of SO and Abkhazia. Most likely they will gain independence, recognized by Russia, but maybe EU and others as well, depending on the agreement. EU monitors will be stationed along the border with Georgia, on Georgian territory to prevent provocations from either side. Russia troops will stay in newly minted countries. In effect Russia gets SO and Abkhazia but will be made to pay for it in other aspects, like international cooperation, investment, trade agreements, G7, etc.