Under the Bernard Lewis formulation of how Islam faces its problems (“For Islam the solution to the problems of Islam is more Islam”), Iranian Islamic revolutionists threw off the modernizing (yes, modernizing) regime of the Shah in 1979 and replaced it with a radical fundamentalist theocratic regime, still in power.

Jumping ahead (or back) to a look through the Toynbee lens, Iran and Islam as a whole are well along the road of disintegration. Iran making a sudden leap into democracy could make the situation even worse, and we could find out that the deterioration is as great in Iran as it is in Russia. In any case, there’s no cause for optimism, while despair is a sin. Briefly, though, I would look to the Bernard Lewis insight: the solution to the problems of Iran will sooner or later turn to more Islam.